KIEN PHAMCAPITAL & QUANT LABS
JEL: C14JEL: G1214 MIN READUPDATED SEP 2026

Dynamic Convexity Traps & Regime-Switching Volatility in High-Rate Environments

Author: Kien Pham — Capital & Quant Labs

Liquidity regimes do not transition smoothly. When implied liquidity diverges from realized liquidity, the standard hedging assumption of continuous rebalancing fails, and desks holding what they believe to be delta-gamma neutral books find themselves carrying meaningfully more convexity risk than their models report.

dSt = μSt dt + σ(Rt) St dWt,    Rt ∈ { 1, 2 }
Interactive Risk Recalculation

Drag slider to shock implied volatility and simulate tail convexity exposure.

Implied Volatility Shift+25 bps
-50 bps+100 bps
Simulated Portfolio Impact-1.89%
Inspect Architecture Decision Record (ADR-04) for this model →